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Covid third wave unlikely to be as devastating as second wave, says ICMR

The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) report estimated that the third wave of coronavirus infections in India is unlikely to be as devastating as the second wave. The study's estimates are based on mathematical modelling. It "demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave".

According to the study, plausible mechanisms for a third wave could include a new variant of the virus causing Covid-19 that is more transmissible and at the same time capable of escaping prior immunity. The mechanism could also include imposing "lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission" of the viral infection.

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